Traders waiting for a potential trade shove before the weekend.
The USDJPY moved higher yesterday, continuing the trend from Tuesday’s low at 106.77. The high yesterday moved above the 200 hour MA (green line and raced throught the 100 bar MA on the 4-hour (at 108.038 today) but stalled right at the swing level at 108.16. Looking back to June 13 to June 19, there was decent floor at that level. On June 20, the floor became a ceiling (see red circle 5 and 6). The high yesterday respected that ceiling. That made sense technically.
The fall from that high has been able to cut below the 200 hour MA (green line at 107.668) over the last 20-24 hours), but remains above the 100 hour MA and 50% of the week’s low to high trading range at 107.512 and 107.464 respectively.
We currently trade back above the 200 hour MA (green line) but the Asian high is so far holding (107.815). Can we hold above the 200 hour MA and get a shove above the Asian high next? Watch the MA line.
If it fails, the shove will be eyed below the 100 hour MA and the 50%.
It is month end/quarter end/week end ahead of a key G20 meeting. That could lead to some price action from the “deal flow” . How that pans out, could get that shove (and follow through momentum). That is what traders will be anticipating (being positive about a final trade move before the weekend).
US stocks are called higher with Dow up 100 points and S&P up about 9 points.
US yields (which tend to correlate up and down with the USD) went from down a little (less than 1 bp) earlier to up a little now (less than 1 bp).
The data was mixed with inflation still low but spending/income looking good in May at least (it is almost July).