Chop. Chop. Chop
The USDJPY is continueing to have trouble going….well anywhere.
The sellers made a run below a floor area at 111.79-84, but when it reached the 38.2% of the move up from the April 10 low, the price stalled and reversed back above that broken level. That did not work.
When the price tried to move above the 100 and 200 hour MAs and a trend line, the price stalled at a spike high from April 18 and reversed back down.
The large “red box” has allowed the 200 hour MA to catch up to the 100 hour MA. We trade above and below those converged MAs. The sideways price action says the “Market” does not know what it wants to do.
Chop. Chop. Chop.
The good thing about the market not knowing what to do is at some point, it will decide. There will break. “The market” will shove the price either below the 111.79 level, and instead of falling and rebounding (it may still but we can look for more momentum), the price will take out some more levels (the 200 day MA is at 111.515 and would be a key target).
“The market” will shove the price away from the MAs to the upside, and race above 112.00 first and then the 112.159 level on the way 112.28 (swing lows from November and December before breaking lower). Above that level the 112.72 is a trend line target on the daily chart (see chart below).
You gotta believe that 111.79 to 112.16 is not where the USDJPY will remain forever. I do believe that.