Home / Forex Treiding / USDJPY can’t get below 105.00 on the first test, but sellers still in control. Here’s why…

USDJPY can’t get below 105.00 on the first test, but sellers still in control. Here’s why…

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Reaches 105.05 on first look

The USDJPY is lower on the day and the bears are in control, but the first look at the 105.00 level found early buyers. The price of the USDJPY has not been below the 105.00 level since the flash crash on January 3rd when the price bottomed (on Bloomberg) at 104.87.  The 105.00 level and the 104.87 level are the next downside targets followed by the 104.60 which was the 2018 low (see weekly chart below).  

Keeping on the weekly chart, last week the price closed below a lower trend line at 106.50. Keep that are in mind on any rebound.  It should be resistance on a test (see chart above).  
Going all the way from the weekly chart, to the 5 minute chart below, there are some intraday technical clues that are keeping the ball in the sellers court.  
For one, the corrective high in the London session, moved above the 200 bar MA (green line) but failed to break above a topside trend line at 105.58 area.  That line has 4 points on it (see red circles). Keep that line in mind on a rally higher.  The holding kept the selllers in control, and when the price moved below the MAs (green and blue lines), selling intensified.  
The run lower to the 105.05 area has seen the price bounce modestly, but it will take a move above the 38.2-50% of that move lower at 105.249-31 to tilt the bias a little higher. That would take the price above the 100 bar MA (blue line) and the swing lows from earlier in the day as welll. Failure to get above those levels, shows the buyers can not take back the minimum of control from sellers.   PS a break above still has the 200 bar MA to get above and the trend line but getting above 105.31 would give buyers more of a shot to go after those levels above.  

So, sellers in control below the 105.31. On the downside 105.00 and 104.87 are the next targets for the USDJPY.  

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