16 pip total range today….
THe USDJPY is trading in a 16 pip trading range. It is hard to do that. Do we extend? You would expect.
However, stocks are lower but not running (and is rebounding off earlier lows – actually trades near the day highs now). If stocks run (more than what we are seeing) it could ignite a flight to safety/out of safety flows. So far, it does not require that type of move.
US yeilds are higher a little but with the yield curve steepening (2 years near unchanged and 30 year up 2.5 bps). If yields move higher on growth feas than that could help the dollar, but it seems the move is more of a yield curve play
Gold is unchanged.
Crude is higher by 2.5% but Pres. Trump is trying to slow the rise by insisting that the shortfall of Iran oil can easily be done while they squeeze Iran to get in line.
Technically, the pair in the NY session is so far stalling on the topside against the 100 hour MA at 111.946. IN the Asian session, the price did move above that MA in a similar move to a move on Good Friday and in the NY session on Thursday. Each of those moves did not go far before reversing lower. On the downside the low in the first hour of trading today reached 111.826 which is in the middle of a some swing areas going back to April 5 (see yellow area) at 111.784 to 111.835. The 200 hour MA is at that area too at 111.788 (and moving higher).
- A move above the 100 hour MA at 111.946 should be more bullish
- A move below the swing area and the 200 hour MA at 111.788-835 should be more bearish.
We currently trade at 111.909 with either extreme not far away.