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USDCHF’s sharp rise stalls just ahead of topside trend line. What now?


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Sharp fall yesterday. Sharp rise today.

The USDCHF fell yesterday as flight to safety flows dominated the price action story for the pair. 

The price fell back below the 200 day MA (at 0.9948 area), the 100 hour MA (blue line at 0.9948 as well now) but stalled at the 200 hour MA (green line at 0.9923 currently).   
Today although the stock story is still the same with the major indices down another 1%, the USDCHF is sharply higher. You can blame lower CPI inflation.. Remember as well that the manufacturing PMI data at a Switzerland yesterday was also much weaker.  
The rally has taken the price back above the 100 hour moving average, the 200 day moving average.  
It also moved above the September 18/19 highs at 0.99828 and the parity level at 1.0000. The high price today did not stall until getting within 4 pips of a topside trend line on the hourly chart above at 1.00254.  Sellers found their limit.
The price has reversed back lower as stocks continue to slide and perhaps we get some flight into the safety of the CHF now.   However, the pair is also testing the highs from September 18/19 and the swing hi from Monday’s trade at 0.99828 to 0.99868.  
IF the buyers are to keep control, this area should attract buyers.  If the price breaks below, the bullish waters get a little bit more muddy intraday (i.e., we should see some additional selling pressure).   

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