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USDCAD retests 200 hour MA


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The price ran above after Friday’s jobs reports, but backed off

The USDCAD moved higher with the run higher in the USD, but ran into the 200 hour MA (green line currently at 1.30952).  If the buyers are to take more control getting above that MA is key.  

On Friday, that 200 hour MA was broken after the US and Canada jobs reports (US was stronger/Canada wa a little weaker).  That move higher stalled near the 50% of the move down from the June 21 high at 1.31326, and the price backed off on the failure.

The low today stalled near the swing low from just before the jobs reports at 1.30493.  That gave the buyers the go-ahead to reenter from the long side.  
The bullish and not so bullish from the move higher today is 

  • the price is up on the day, 
  • The price is also above the 100 hour MA at 1.30778. Stay above the 100 hour MA now, and the buyers will eventually crack back above the 200 hour MA. 

The not so bullish for the day is that 

  • the 200 hour MA stalled the rally. 
  • The price is below the 1.3100 natural resistance and 
  • The price is also below the 38.2% of the move down from the June 21 high at 1.3110 (not to mention the Friday highs).  

Honestly, the high just reach made it to the  middle of the employment low to high trading range (1.3094 is the midpoint). The market needs a shove. Will it be above the 200 hour MA or back below the 100 hour MA. I get the feeling the next move above or below, will determine the directional bias going forwaard.  
  
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