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USDCAD follows the USD lower. Cracks below 100 day MA today


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The 100 day MA held support all day yesterday

The USDCAD is not immune to the USD move lower today.  Like others currency pair, the first move was higher for the USD, then lower in the North American session.

For this pair, the 100 day MA provide support all day long yesterday.  At the London session low, the price stalled at a trend line (see green circle 4) and moved to a new session high.  The subsequent fall started to unwind the bullish move on breaks below the trend line, and then the 100 day MA at 1.32291.  More recently a lower trend line on the hourly has been broken at 1.32183.  
The next target is the 50% of the move up from the Feb 1 low. That comes in at 1.32036. Last week, the 50% was a little lower and the low stalled right around that level.  Regardless, a move below the 50% would be a step in the bearish direction.  
Close risks for shorts is the underside of the broken trend line at 1.32183. A more conservative risk level for shorts would be the 100 day MA.   Last week, the break below the 100 day MA failed. Is this week a repeat or the start of a more pronounced moved lower. That MA will be a barometer for the bulls and bears.  Stay below is more bearish. Move above, and the bears failed.  

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