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USDCAD breaks back below its 100 day MA

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More bearish…

The USDCAD has broken below the 100 day MA at 1.30368 on more positive headlines on NAFTA. Oil is also racing ahead (up 1.62%) which tends to be supportive to the CAD (lower USDCAD). The inventory data just showed a draw of -5296K which was higher than the estimate of -2000K but below the private data from yesterday.  

The 100 day MA has had a number of tests over the last month.  At the end of August, the price dipped below the MA line but recovered after 4 closes below the line.  Being back below now is more bearish.  The 38.2% at 1.2879 is a target on the daily. The 200 day MA is at 1.28586. The price has not traded below the 200 day MA since April 17th. 
Drilling to the hourly chart below, the break takes the price to a swing area from August 30/31 at the 1.3000 area. In addition to being a round number, the price was also trading above and below the 100 day MA before basing and racing higher at that time.   A move below will look toward another swing area from August 29 and August 30 at 1.29614.  

For now….the sellers are in control on the break of the 100 day MA at 1.3036. 

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