The stars are aligning for a move higher in USD/JPY
Price is now looking to hold a break above the July high @ 113.17 and in doing so, will extend a move towards the 114.00 level with minor resistance seen around 113.65-75. The move higher today is very much an extension of yesterday’s upside move following Wall Street’s rebound as equities sentiment has also improved to start the day.
E-minis are trading 0.3% higher currently and Asian stocks are also posting solid gains with the Nikkei up by 2.1% near the highs at the moment.
Aside from risk sentiment, buyers also got a bit of help from the BOJ after the central bank moved to lower its inflation forecasts – signalling that they are less confident of reaching the inflation target at this point in time. While the fact that Japan continues to struggle with its battle against deflation isn’t new, the news is a rather timely one for USD/JPY buyers to chew on.
It provides a good impetus for price to stay above the July high for the time being and we’re waiting for Kuroda to pretty much confirm that when he speaks in about an hour’s time. All eyes will be on Mr. K as pressure begins to mount on whether or not Japan can defeat the deflation monster during his tenure.
A more subdued and softer approach by Kuroda later will be pretty much the confirmation needed for USD/JPY to run higher on the day. Couple that with improved sentiment in equities and month-end/year-end dollar funding demand, there is good reason for the pair to extend higher still.