Large expiries at 108.00 something to watch out for in trading today
It’s one I’ve been pointing out since Monday and the size of those expiries have grown to $4.3 billion as of now, set to roll off later today. That’s part and parcel as to what is keeping USD/JPY price action so centred around the 108.00 handle so far this week.
Buyers are still in near-term control after holding a break above the key hourly moving averages but they may have to wait a bit longer for any further upside extension with little catalysts to go on and the expiries above still in play.
The risk for any upside move now is if price starts to fall back below the key hourly moving averages with the 100-hour MA (red line) seen at 107.88 and the 200-hour MA (blue line) seen at 107.96. Those will be key levels to watch out for in the near-term.
As for upside levels, minor resistance is seen closer around 108.30-38 before offers are lined-up around 108.50 and then at the 109.00 handle.
Ultimately, for USD/JPY it is all about the play in yields and that depends largely on the Fed decision next week. As such, more tepid trading in yields is likely to see the pair consolidate before breaking out further.