The move seems somewhat inevitable now unless something changes on the US-China trade rhetoric
The move lower today is encountering a bit of a stall as Japanese authorities voiced their displeasure about the yen strengthening after the fallout in trade talks between US and China since late last week.
But I reckon that’s about as much as they can do to limit yen strength, as in to stall or smooth out the currency’s appreciation. Unless of course they back that up with heavy intervention or BOJ action, which may be needed when USD/JPY hits 100.00.
However, at this stage, escalating US-China trade tensions amid the ongoing global economic slowdown will continue to play into yen strength in 2H 2019. The moves we’re seeing could very well just be the beginning of a larger secular downtrend in USD/JPY.
The 105.00 handle is the next key level to watch for but if that gives way, there isn’t much stopping a fall towards the November 2016 low of 101.20 and the 100.00 level.
The key issue now will be to anticipate whether Japanese authorities can ‘walk the walk’ after ‘talking the talk’ earlier today. I reckon the longer they take to make their course of action clear, the more emboldened markets will feel to bring USD/JPY lower.