The S&P 500 is in a dangerous stop
Will it be a double bottom or fresh lows?
I expect an answer in week ahead with two major events to come.
November 30 and December 1 are the G20 meetings in Argentina. The main event will be the Trump-Xi meeting and it’s imperative that there is some kind of de-escalation or progress towards a trade deal. If the US says it’s going to 25% tariffs after the meeting, then stocks are going to wilt.
The other event is Powell’s speech on November 28. He’s speaking at the Economic Club of New York so the topic will undoubtedly be interest rates and the outlook. If he signals that the Fed may pause after a December hike, then markets will respond very positively.
Along with Powell, there are other Fed opportunities to manage the message with Vice Chairman Clarida to speak on Nov 27, the Fed minutes on Nov 29 and Williams on Nov 30.