The USDCAD too out the August low at 1.28867, reaching a low at 1.28831. The 38.2% retracement of the move up from the September 2017 low comes in just a few pips lower at 1.28794. The price has bounced off that support area and is trading at 1.2898. PS also in play on the daily is the 200 day MA at 1.2863.
The question the market has to wrestle with for this pair is “Does the USDCAD break the 200 day MA before a NAFTA agreement?”
Taking the fundamental out of it, “Does the market stall against the 200 day MA on the first look?”
The price of the USDCAD has not traded below the 200 day MA since April 19th.
Looking at the hourly chart, keep an eye on more momentum above 1.2902. That level was a mini-floor from Monday AFTER the new low was reached. A move above might prompt some more corrective action.