EUR/CHF is up 0.3% on the day to its highest levels since 30 August
Price has moved above the previous month’s high @ 1.1744 and now looks to be tracking towards the 1.1400 level. Near-term price momentum is siding with buyers as price stays above both key hourly moving averages. The swissie is the weakest performing major currency today in a move that started since Asian trading.
In times of thin liquidity such as those usually seen in early Asian trading, it begs the question if the SNB finally decided to step into picture today to help give franc pairs a bit of a lift.
Ultimately, the key “turning point” in EUR/CHF for me will be the August high @ 1.1454. If price manages to break above that, it will start to make a strong argument for a move back towards the highs this year.
The major near-term risk for the pair will be that of Italy’s budget/fiscal deficit. Right now things are looking more optimistic as sources are saying that the coalition government is looking to compromise with a deficit of under 2%.
Even as that doesn’t put a bid in the euro, at the very least it does not derail the single currency’s recent upside momentum. And at the same time, better performance in European assets like we’re seeing today will help to keep flows away from the swissie.