With the ECB out of the way, the euro is running out of reasons to stay afloat
The pair is still trading rather narrowly on the day and there is still minor support from the 13 July 2017 low @ 1.1371 but aside from that daily support level, there isn’t much in the way of stopping sellers from making a run towards the year’s lows at 1.1301 once again.
The expiries calendar doesn’t hold anything significant of note but do be reminded that there are still barriers sitting at the 1.1300 handle that failed to be breached back in August.
That’s the technical side of things. What about the fundamentals?
The ECB and Draghi stuck to the script yesterday and didn’t provide any fireworks so that removes an uncertain risk of the euro moving on the back of central bank commentary. What we’re left now is continued stagnation in German growth as we enter into Q4 and that doesn’t bode well for Eurozone economic outlook in general. Apart from that, Italy’s budget situation isn’t helping with a deadlock still ongoing between the government and the European Commission.
Those two factors have so far been enough to weigh the euro down over the past two weeks and they aren’t showing signs of abating just yet.
For the dollar’s case, sure the greenback isn’t exactly surging on the back of risk off flows but it ain’t doing that bad either as other major currencies continue to face problems of their own. Couple that with the fact that year-end tends to see heightened dollar funding demand and the US economy continues to hold steady, there is still reason for the greenback to push higher for the time being.
The first look at US Q3 GDP later today may very well reaffirm that notion and be the push that sellers need to drag the pair lower in the session ahead.