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The JPY is the strongest. The NZD is the weakest as traders enter for the day


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The USD is stronger as global risk flows head to safety

Overnight, China retail sales were the worst in 15 years and that has spooked the stock markets again.   As a result, the flow of funds is heading to the safety of the JPY and USD (strongest) and out of the AUD and NZD (weakest currencies). 

The ranges and changes are showing the flows into the USD with the EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD and NZDUSD all trading near the lows for the day.  The USDCHF is also near it’s highs.  The USDJPY is stuck in an up and down range, with limited price action as both currencies tend to be “safe havens”.    The JPY pairs are also lower and near day lows indicative of a market that is under “risk off” pressure.

In other markets:

  • spot gold is trading lower on the back of the stronger dollar. It is down to $-4.15 or -0.33% at $1237.90
  • WTI crude oil futures are trading down $.35 or -0.67% at $52.22
  • Bitcoin on Coinbase is trading up $12.55 at $3267. The low reach $3230. The high extended to $3294.  The low price for 2018 was at $3212 back on December 7th.  

Stocks are implying lower openings for US stocks

  • Dow, -252 points
  • Nasdaq,-94 points
  • S&P, -28 points

European shares are lower:

  • German Dax, -0.70%
  • France’s CAC, -1.0%
  • UK’s FTSE, -0.6%
  • Spain’s Ibex, -1.0%
  • Italy’s FTSE MIB, -1.0%

In the US debt market, yields are lower across the board by -2.8 to -3.6 bps. Below are the values and the ranges and changes so far today.
The 10 year benchmark yields in Europe are mostly lower with the exception of Italy.

US retail sales will be released at 8:30 AM ET. The expectations or 0.1% with ex auto and gas at +0.4%
US industrial production will be released at 9:15 AM ET with expectations of +0.3%
Markit PMI data for manufacturing released at 9:45 AM ET with expectations of 55.0.  Service PMI expected at 54.6
Later in the day the Baker Hughes rig count will be released.  Oil rigs last week came in at 877.  Total recounts was at 1075.
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