Stay below the 1.22694
The GBPUSD has moved lower in early NY trading and in the process has moved below the 50% retracement of the September trading range. The market seems to be souring on the new plan by PM Johnson as he tries to tackle the Irish border issue.
That midpoint comes in at 1.22694 (see chart above). On Friday of last week, the pair tested that level (and the 200 bar moving average on the 4 hour chart – lower green line) and bounced modestly.
The rally yesterday stalled ahead of the underside of a broken trend line. Today the price stalled near an old swing area (see yellow area) and just below its 100 hour moving average (blue line on the chart above) at 1.23197 currently.
The 50% retracement line is now the close risk for the sellers. Stay below keeps the sellers more in control. A move back above muddies the water for the sellers who see the break as significant technically (it is).
On the downside the pair has tested (dipped below) the swing low from September 9 at 1.22316. Below that the lower trend line comes in at 1.22035. The 61.8% comse in at 1.21959. That is a lower target area on more weakness going forward.
Sellers took the control below the 50% today. We are testing interim supportat 1.22316 before better support near the 1.2200 area.