Trades between the 100 hour MA above at 1.31626 and 200 hour MA below at 1.3126
An earlier post talked to the price of the GBPUSD trading between the 100 and 200 hour MAs. The 100 hour MA is higher at 1.31626. The 200 hour MA is down at 1.3126.
There was a run-up to the 100 hour MA at 1.31625 in sympathy with the EURUSDs quicker run on the Draghi comments.
The 100 hour MA (top blue line in the chart above) was indeed broken, but it did not necessarily run. The high price reached 1.3166 and backed off. Buyers turned to sellers.
We are not down testing the 200 hour MA (and 38.2% of the day’s range – see chart above). Do we find the buyers as the ping-pong continues, or does the market break lower?
As Adam pointed out earlier, PM May warned that Brexit talks are likely to get tougher as the clock ticks.
He reminded us all that:
Ultimately, it’s a binary outcome and a deal either gets done or doesn’t. If you’re on one side or the other then you need to be able to handle the ebb and flow of the headlines because it’s going to get worse in the next eight weeks.
The technical levels act as bias clues for traders in the ups and downs (or ping pongs) The 100 hour MA stalls the rally. Sellers enter.
The 200 hour MA is tested. Does it bounce or go through with momentum?
We don’t really know, but what we do know is that risk can be defined and limited at the level(s).
So if you buy, stop yourself on a momentum break. If it does not break but goes higher, look for a bounce toward higher levels. (a move above the earlier NY session low at 1.3137 would be a target and a more bullish move).
If you think the price will go through the 200 hour MA, look for that break but have an upside stop too. If is is broken look for a test of the 50% of the day’s range. That would be the target. A stop might be a move above the old NY session low at 1.3137.
If a random Brexit headline causes a run one way or the other, get out or get lucky.