Cause for pause at swing area at 1.1225-29
The EURUSD just traded up to a high or 1.1227 level. That was between a swing area defined by lows on April 18 and highs (after a break lower) on Apirl 23rd. The return to that floor/ceiling area has stalled the rally in the NY session at least.
The pair, nevertheless, has seen a clear technical run higher. Early in the session, the pair moved down to test a trend line (see lower blue numbered circles). A topside trend line and the 200 hour MA (green line at 1.1199 – call it 1.12000) was then broken. The 50% midpoint was the last level broken at 1.12163. We are currently trading around that 50% level as “the market” finds the sellers near the old swing levels and digests the move higher.
Drilling to the 5 minute chart below, you can clearly see the base near the 200 hour MA and run higher (green line currently at 1.12000 area). THat is now near the 50% of the move up today and represents a risk level for longs. Ahead of that is the 38.2% of the day’s range at 1.12076.
A battle is on, with the swing area above up to 1.1229 and the 1.1200 level below (200 hour MA and 50% retracement).