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Oil price slipping – Goldman Sachs technical analysis says serious downside risk


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A chart from GS on WTI as the oil price is setting off into the new trading week with a bit of a slide here in Asia


Comments accompanying the chart (in brief):

  • Oil has breached 51.67 interim high from June 2016
  • Contact with 51.67 diminishes any possibility that this might be a 4th of 5-waves from early-’16
  • in effect exposes serious downside risks
  • It’s now possible to argue that the entire rise from the ’16 lows was counter-trend
  • … In terms of levels to be aware of, WTI is currently testing 50% retrace at 51.47. The next retrace to note is 61.8% all the way down at 45.47. 
  • Worth pointing out that monthly oscillators are coincidently breaking below the base of a three year bull range, supporting the view that further weakness is likely on the cards.

View:

  • initial congestion 51.47-50.00
  • next notable support 45.47
  • reassess above 56.55

—I can’t say I am a user of Elliot Wave, but if anyone is comments welcome!

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