Up one day, down the next, up the next
The NZDUSD is being dragged higher today in sympathy with the AUDUSD rise (better trade data), stocks which are doing ok (sans the Nikkei which is down -0.43. Hang Seng is up 1.5%, CSI 300 is up 1.83%, S&P/ASX is 0.32), also some positive technicals.
The switch to positive technicals is not all that surprising. Looking at the hourly chart the price action this week has seen lots of ups and down and ups and downs
Yesterday, the price fell below the 100 hour MA (blue line). I posted earlier today that the fall below the MA turned the buyers on the dip to the MA, into sellers on the break. Moreover, the “MA is now risk for the shorts” That is get, above and the sellers turn to buyers again.
Well, the price moved back above the 100 hour MA, and the sellers covered (bought).
The price rise also cracked above the 200 hour MA (after an initial stall). Guess what? The 200 hour MA is now risk for the longs. I hate to say it, but a move back below the 200 hour MA at 0.65387, would tilt the buyer, back to sellers.
What levels are the targets on the upside? Where might sellers line up in this up and down market?
The trend line at 0.6564 and the swing area at 0.6567-72 (yellow area in the chart above) are the obvious targets that may stall the rise. The yellow area, stalled the rally on both Tuesday and Wednesday. Why not on Thursday too?
Of course at some point, the ups and downs will end. So if bullish you want to see that yellow area broken and remain broken. If done, a move toward the 0.6600-09 will be eyed.