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Gold takes it on the chin after rally fails. Can the price momentum break out of the range?

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Back  below $1200 again.

Gold is trading down about -$9 or $10 on the day. That has taken the price back below the $1200 level.  We currently trade around $1198 as I type.

The price was lower earlier. The low for the day reached down to $1191.95. So there has been a recovery. 
Prior to the run low, the price was also much higher. The high for the day reached $1211.10. That took the price to a new high for the week.   The up and then down, makes today one of the more volatile days in a while..
Technically, looking at the daily chart above, the price action over the last month has been in a range of $1183.22 to $1214.35.  That is not a very big range. There also also been a lot of ups and downs along the way. 
The high – in that range – was able to stay below the 38.2% of the move down from the June consolidation high. That comes in at $1217.30. The inability to correct above the 38.2% still keeps the sellers more in control from the daily’s technical perspective. 
Drilling to the hourly chart below, the ups and downs have taken the price above and below the converged and sideways 100 and 200 hour MAs. The 100 hour MA is at $1202.76. The 200 hour MA is at $1201.33.  
Prior to the fall today, the buyers had their shot on taking the price higher. The price stayed above those MAs for the last two days, but the high today just could not get above the Sept 13 high at $1212.73.  
The buyers failed. 

That puts the burden on the sellers now.  Can they get and keep the momentum going in the downward direction?
There are two things that the sellers have to do to prove they have more strength than the buyers (who failed on their run).

  • Stay below the 100 and 200 hour MA, and 
  • Pick away at the swing lows.
  • Already, looking at the hourly, the price has been able to stay below the two MAs. That is good for the sellers.  However, the low from Monday stalled the fall today.  That is not so good for the sellers.  That level needs to be busted along with the $1189.69, the $1187.90, and the $1183.22 levels. 
    At some point, the month long ups and down will end and gold will make a run.  The price action and tools will help tell that story.  Sometimes, the story looks more bullish, but targets to the upside can’t be reached.
    Then the story looks more bearish technically but targets to the downside can’t be reached.
    The sellers are now the dominant character in the current story. Can they keep telling their story? Well risk is defined. It is up to the sellers to push below the lower targets now. 

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