Price converged to the MA
The 100 and 200 hour MAs on the GBPUSD have converged and the price is trading above and below the MAs in early North American trading (at the session lows).
When the MAs converge with the price, I call it “Three’s a Crowd”. It is indicative of a market that is in balance. It is neutral. It is looking for a shove.
Markets trend and non-trend. When the two moving averages converge with the price, the market is non-trending. Non-trending transitions to trending. So be on the look out for the shove and a trend move.
There are a number of things to shove the market with the FOMC on tap today. China/US and Brexit are other big potential influences (for the USD or GBP).
Of course the FOMC is the most likely early shove today.
For Brexit the last 100 days are starting to tick down now. US and China could go on for years, but there is a 3 month ticking clock for some progress (with 19 days ticked away).
Looking at the hourly chart above, the 50% retracement of the move down from the November 29 high comes in at 1.26619 is a topside target to get through followed by the topside trend line at 1.2700 area.
On the downside, the trend line comes in at 1.2598. Getting and staying below that level opens up the downside for tests of the December lows.
Looking at the daily chart below, the 1.26621 level was a swing low going back to August and again in early December (low was 1.2659). The price has been trying to move above that level since breaking below on December 10, but each look above, has been rejected before the close (no closes above 1.2661). The 50% of the last move down on the hourly comes in at 1.26619. That level seems like it might be a good barometer for bulls and bears going forward.