The price did take a peak above the MA line earlier in the day but backed off
The GBPUSD has been pushing the 100 day MA and a topside trend line since yesterday. The trend line was lightly broken yesterday and backed off. Today the 100 day MA was lightly broken and backed off again. The 100 day MA is at 1.13655. The trend line is at 1.31753 currently. The low today reached 1.31183.
The price moved up to the 100 day MA as the headlines from China trickled across the screens. Sellers stalled the rally.
Overall, China’s response was probably more muted than expectations with tariffs at 5-10% instead of 10% and 20%. Plus the total of goods was $60B (vs US $200B). Of course, the threat is that China could make things difficult for US businesses in China too (or those looking to do business there).
The price rise on the reaction (dollar selling) was a move back to the 100 day MA at 1.31655. The high reached 1.31641 and has backed off.
If the dollar goes lower on a trade “war”, the China retaliation and the US 10% instead of 25% is indicative of more of a “spat” still (although the slaps are getting harder).
What we do know is the 100 day MA and trend line at 1.3165-75 is a barometer for the markets bullish/bearish bias. Right now, sellers continue to lean (with the price off the levels)