The yen is the weakest performing major currency today
That sees GBP/JPY move to its highest levels since 30 August and looks poised to test the highs posted then at 145.69. With momentum working in favour of the pound and against the yen, price looks to be heading towards a test of the 61.8 retracement level as well as the 100-day MA (red line) @ 145.99.
Market sentiment is recovering and that is sees the yen slipping further as the session progresses. Meanwhile, the pound remains relatively underpinned as Brexit outlook appears to have improved somewhat. The cautionary tale for further upside is that there is still the trade rhetoric between US and China looming large and that could reverse all the positive vibes seen this week so far.
Anyway, from a technical perspective GBP/JPY looks to be heading towards a test of the 30 August high at 145.69 with the 61.8 retracement level @ 145.92 lurking nearby. The 100-day MA @ 145.99 is also a key level to eye for. If buyers break above that, then the bearish bias in the pair will be relinquished.
The last time the pair tested a break above the 100-day MA was back in July but the broken upwards trendline helped act as a resistance level to stall the upside move and the pair subsequently fell thereafter.
This time around, a break above the 100-day MA will only see further resistance around 146.65 (swing region) followed by the 147.00 handle. That gives an opportunity for buyers to roam further to the upside and build some momentum.
I’m still not sold on the risk on sentiment that we’re seeing in markets this week but I also can’t argue with what the charts are saying. Near-term momentum is clearly against the yen right now so I’d be wary of going short despite the fundamentals/outlook.