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EURUSD trends lower in its modest way, but it is moving…


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The 20 pip range from yesterday was lowest this year (and in years)

The EURUSD didn’t show up yesterday. It didn’t play, The 20 pips trading range (it was actually a touch less than 20 pips) was the lowest this year and the lowest in years.  But non-trend transitions to trend and today it is having a better day, although the range is only 41 pips so far.  Nevertheless, it is trending lower.

Looking at the 5 minute chart above, the pair is the NY afternoon session started to move away from the 100 and 200 bar MAs. They were going sideways and the price traded above and below during most of the day. The move away was a clue of more downside potential.  
The lows were finally broke with some momentum and the pair has been stepping lower. There was a correction in the London/European morning session that stalled at the 100 hour MA. A more recent corrective move could not reach that MA line (blue line).  We are currently trading near session lows. The lagging and falling 100 bar MA will be eyed as a risk level. Buyers willl have to take the price above to hurt the trend lower bias today.  The MA comes in at 1.1184 currently. 
Taking a broader look from the hourly chart, the pair also got help on the break of a lower trend line and swing area (lower yellow area).  The pair also broke out of a red box that has seen the price confined in a 1.1200 to 1.1285 range (too narrow).  Non trend transitions to trend.  The sellers are in control.  I will post a new video on that trading truism shortly. 

When the market starts to trend, the break clues are key. Stay below is more bearish.  For the EURUSD, the 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart is a close risk level intraday. On the hourly, staying below the 1.1200-07 will be key. The price should stay out of that red box, if the price is to continue the trend lower.   
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