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EURUSD sellers leaning against the 1.1594-1.1604

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Retracement, 200 and 100 hour MA.  Options also in play at 1.1600 over the next few days

The EURUSD is seeing sellers leaning against the:

  • 38.2% retracement at 1.16045
  • 200 hour MA at 1.1600
  • 100 hour MA at 1.15943

Staying below the area keeps the sellers more in control, with the recent swing lows as targets. Move above and the trend lines above will be eyed. They come in at 1.1625 and 1.1638 currently (and moving lower). 
The ECB will announce their interest rate decision tomorrow. There is no change in rates expected, but there is chatter that they will lower growth forecasts, but keep inflation estimates unchanged. 
The other thing in play is option expires. 
Tomorrow 1.5b is expiring at 1.1600, and on Friday an additional 1.1B is set to expire. 
There is lots of time between then and now (with Draghi and ECB in the way). You would expect that the price would not just die here. As a result, a break could lead to the option people hedging the positions (on moves away from the strike price area).  
Honestly, it is hard to predict, but be aware. There could be a run if momentum starts to build either higher or lower.  

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