EURUSD may just wait for the FOMC decision for the next shove.
The EURUSD has positioned itself near the middle of the 100 and 200 hour MAs (blue and green lines in the chart below) ahead of the key FOMC decision tomorrow.
The 100 hour moving average (blue line) is currently at 1.11384 (and more or less moving sideways). The 200 hour MA (green line) is at 1.11691 and moving lower. The current price is at 1.1157, 12 pips from the upper boundary and 19 pips from the lower boundary.
Is there a chance the pair remains between the two moving averages up until the FOMC decision? Absolutely. It won’t be the first (or last) time that the market says “Let the data – or decision – decide the next shove”.
The short term bias is tilting a little to the upside with the EURUSD holding the 100 hour MA in the NY session, and a move above the 1.11504 level (highs from July 25/26/29). A move below each would negate that bias.
On a break lower, traders will be looking to 1.1124-26 (swing area). The 1.1106 was the old 2019 low before last week’s extension to 1.11007. A move to new 2019 low below the 1.11000, should solicit more selling on the extension. Remember, the trading range for the year is only 469 pips (see video HERE). The average range over the last 7 years is around 1450 pips There is room to roam.
On the topside, a break of the 200 hour MA, will look toward the ECB day spike high at 1.1187, the 50% at 1.11909 and then the 100 bar MA on the 4-hour at 1.12026. If the FOMC is really dovish, the 100 day MA at 1.12368 would be another target for the pair.