100 hour moving average at 1.11809 currently
The EURUSD is trading near its session lows for the day at 1.1187 currently (low reached 1.11867). That is getting close to the rising 100 hour moving average currently at 1.11809. The price of the EURUSD moved above its 100 hour moving average last in the early trading hours of Monday, and has not been below it since..The last three days of up and down consolidation, has allowed the MA to catch up to the price. Decision time for the market. Go higher or break below and probe lower.
Helping the bears today is sellers did a better job of leaning against the hundred day moving average and 200 bar moving average on the four hour chart at the 1.12248 to 1.12292 area. the high today stalled between those levels. On Tuesday and again yesterday, the price moved above each and traded above and below for a few hours each day before failing.
On a break lower, the 38.2% retracement of the move up from last week’s low comes in at 1.11639. The 100 bar moving average on the four hour chart is just above that level at 1.1166. A swing area consisting of the high price from July 31 and the low price from Tuesday’s trading straddles those levels at 1.1162 to 1.1167 (yellow area in the chart above). A move below that area targets the rising 200 hour moving average at 1.11468.
The Pavlovian reaction to stocks this week has been if stocks go lower, the EURUSD goes higher, while if stocks go higher, the EURUSD goes lower. The premarket trading is showing gains with the Dow up 70 points and the S&P up eight points.
As I type we are testing the 100 hour moving average at 1.11809