Not a lot of conviction and technicals are seeing fails but something has to give
Admittedly, the EURUSD has seen lots of chop in trading today with the price of failing on moved higher, and failing on moves lower.
The initial failures more on breaks below its 200 hour moving average (green line in the chart above). Recall from yesterday, the price moved above that moving average for the 1st time since September 20. Bullish.
Today however, the weaker PMI data helped push the price back below that moving average line. The fall could only extend toward the swing highs from Tuesday and an intraday swing high from yesterday. The price rebounded.
The subsequent move back higher, broke above an old floor, turned ceiling area at 1.0964-67 (see red numbered circles in the chart above). Like the fall below the 200 hour MA, that break (and one other) failed to attract more buyers. Bearish.
We currently trade between the 200 hour moving average below it 1.0949 and the swing area above the 1.0964-67 area. Traders look for a break with momentum (and not a failure). On a move higher, the next target would be the 1.09769 level. That is the 50% midpoint of the move down from the September 18 high to this October 1 low. A move above that level could see traders looking toward the nice round 1.1000 level.
On the downside, should the 200 hour moving average give way, it might be time to head back toward the 100 hour moving average 1.09284. Like the price action today around the 200 hour moving average, yesterday, the price moved below and then back above the MA (it found support at old levels at 1.09038).