Weaker data weakens the USD
The EURUSD is making a break higher after the much weaker than expected ADP data.
Job growth was still positive but weaker than the 185K estimate (came in at 27K). The US jobs report from the BLS will be released on Friday. The probability of a June cut is up from about 22% to 33% now. The expectations for a July cut is now about 72%.
Technically, the EURUSD moved above both its 100 day MA and 50% retracement at 1.12744 and 1.12785 respectively (bullish breaks).
The pair did move above each of those levels in the London sesssion, but backed off frustrating the bulls/buyers. The corrective low stalled at around 1.1250 before moving higher (and shoved higher by the news).
Traders don’t like getting whipped around twice on key breaks and the break of the 100 day MA and 50% are key breaks. Therefore, I would expect stops below the 1.1274-78. Stay above is more bullish. Look for buyers on dips ahead of the area.
On the topsdie the 61.8% of the move down from the March high comes in at 1.13184. There is a swing area at 1.1323-31 . Those are the next upside targets for the pair. A trend line comes in at 1.1344 area (connecting highs on the 4-hour chart above).