Getting above the 0.9100 area would also be a help for the bulls…
The EURGBP has had it’s share of ups and downs over the last 5 or so days. In that time a floor was made at 0.90152 on the hourly on Tuesday (3 separate lows), but price action has seen the price move above and below the 100 hour MA as well. Yesterday, the pair also spiked above the 200 hour MA for the first time since August 15. That move did not last long.
Today, that 200 hour MA stalled the rally earlier in the day, and the current bar tried again, only to be turned away. So sellers are looking to keep a lid on the pair and using that MA as it’s lean level. PS also near the area is a swing area (see yellow area).
The price is back down retesting the 100 hour MA at 0.90669. Again, that MA has not done a great job. The price has been above and below it over the last few days. However, a move below is not bullish and adds to the bearish bias from the inability to get above the 200 hour MA.
Looking at the daily chart below, although the hourly chart shows more bearishness, the daily chart is looking more bullish. However, it is also a bit mixed in the near term.
Obviously, the move up from the March low to the August high has corrected lower, but the price is still above the 38.2% at 0.8998. Not being able to get below that retracement is indicative of a “plain vanilla correction toward the 38.2% but not below it”.
Having said that the 0.9086 to 0.90975 (call it 0.9100) area was home to some swing levels going back to August 2018 (see red circles on chart below). The price action this week has seen two days that moved back above that level, only to back off and close below the area.
As a result, although the buyers may still hold more control on the daily chart (plain vanilla correction), the sellers are still “in the hand”. They have not folded.
If the price can get back above the 0.9100 level and stay above, the bulllish bias would improve (it would also be above the 200 hour MA).
So the cards have been dealt. The hand is still being played. The levels above and below are known intraday and from the longer term perspective