EUR/USD remains at around 1.1630 from before the ECB statement was released
The ECB statement offered nothing new to markets and all eyes now will turn towards 1230 GMT where we will get Draghi’s press conference but also the US CPI report. It’s going to be a rather interesting start to US trading surely and that will make up for that lack of volatility from the ECB statement – and trading today in general.
Of note, the statement earlier continued to highlight that the ECB is not wanting to confirm that QE will end in December. They still mentioned that it will be subject to incoming data. That may go to show that the central bank could be worried of potential downside risks in the months to come. Either that, or they’re just playing it safe and keeping their options open.
With growth projections set to be lowered later when Draghi speaks, it could be something for euro bears to chew on. But the inflation outlook is expected to be unchanged, so that shouldn’t temper with their plans to end QE at the end of this year. Again, it will all depend on which way Draghi wants to play his cards.
The market knows what’s in his hands right now. Rate guidance remains the same. No change to QE expected end date. Growth projections are set to be revised a little lower. Inflation outlook is to remain the same. Global risks still at play – trade tensions, emerging markets. Now, it’s just a matter of what he wants to communicate all of that.
Oh, and again. Don’t forget we’ll have US CPI figures in the mix too. That’ll add some spice to things at the bottom of the hour.