EUR/USD closed below the 1.1000 handle last week
Sellers managed a big win last week as they broke below the 1.1000 handle, triggering stops towards testing the trendline support seen above.
However, that’s where they currently fall short of building further momentum and we’ll have to see if they have the conviction to follow through this week.
The trendline support is seen currently @ 1.0953 so that will be key level to watch out for in the days ahead. Meanwhile, any topside move may encounter a bit of a pull towards the 1.1000 handle amid large expiries seen rolling off this week.
At the figure level, there are expiries of €2.2 billion rolling off today, €2.0 billion rolling off tomorrow, and €934 million rolling off on Wednesday. That could help to limit any price gains over the next few sessions.
Further near-term resistance is then seen closer to 1.1040-50 from the swing region towards the end of August.
Looking at the risk events ahead, there isn’t much on the euro side of the equation before the ECB monetary policy decision on 12 September.
As for the dollar, there are a couple of minor releases but the focus will be on the non-farm payrolls report on Friday alongside Fedspeak throughout the week. Fed chair Powell will be speaking late on 6 September and that will be one for markets to look out for.
Other than that, just watch for any major shift in risk sentiment amid trade headlines but I reckon we may be sticking around current levels for a bit before the ECB steps in.