Buyers are making another attempt to get back above the hourly moving averages
It’s been a bit of a ping pong for EUR/USD to start off September so far. The trading range remains between 1.1530 and 1.1650 with ping pong action between the hourly moving averages and the support region at 1.1530. Buyers made an effort to push above the 100-hour MA (red line) overnight but that ultimately stalled and price fell back lower thereafter.
But now we’re seeing a second push to test the 100-hour MA @ 1.1601 again. For buyers, staying above the 1.1600 handle is crucial and with the two key hourly moving averages sitting near one another, breaking above both would be a good platform for a move higher. The 200-hour MA (blue line) sits at 1.1612.
As for sellers, it’s all about breaking below the 1.1530 level now. Price has held the level on two separate occasions this month so a firm move below that will provide the right kind of break lower for the pair. However, for now they must first defend the near-term bearish bias and hold price below 1.1600.
As for key catalysts, the trading day today offers little in terms of economic data but during the week we’ll still have the ECB and US inflation, retail sales data to come. The key driver for today will be much like yesterday and that is risk sentiment. Markets are looking steady so that will lend a helping hand to the euro but be wary, all it takes is one negative trade headline to spur bids back into the dollar.
The daily chart also suggests that sellers remain in control but the 100-day MA (red line) continues to converge closer to the hourly moving averages and that is something to watch out for. It’s an indicator that something’s gotta give eventually when it comes to the pair’s trading bias – should price continue to hug the levels mentioned.