EUR/USD slips to a nine-week low of 1.1403
Make no mistake, this just isn’t about poor economic data that we’ve seen from the PMI prints today. The market is basically spelling out that Draghi is set to approach tomorrow’s press conference in a more dovish manner as a result. But technically, a break of the 9 October low @ 1.1432 is also a significant one as it opens up room for sellers to roam towards the year’s low @ 1.1301.
There is some support seen around the 1.1400 handle but the technical break suggests that we’re looking towards a re-test of the year’s lows unless the ECB and Draghi pulls a hawk out of the hat tomorrow.
In my view, the ECB is in a position where they need not change anything with regards to communication. The euro is where they want it to be and they’ll be more than happy to steer clear of commenting on Italy’s debt situation as they seek to end QE in December.
And with markets already pricing in a full rate hike only by Q4 2019, things are all falling into place for the central bank and the last thing Draghi would want is to spook markets with a hawkish statement/press conference.
Although core inflation has softened a little, it hasn’t derailed the ECB’s outlook all too much and Germany’s continued economic woes is a point of concern but it’s not yet time for the central bank to commit to a different rhetoric from what they have been preaching over the past six months.
That said, the ECB meeting tomorrow promises to be more of a market distraction more than anything else in my view. And Draghi knows that as well, so don’t expect him to come to the euro’s rescue but also don’t expect him to sink the boat.