Dollar index holds at the 100-day MA in Friday’s trading
And that means that the bullish bias in the greenback is still intact. As mentioned last week, the dollar index has not firmly broken or even tested the 100-day MA (red line) since April – when it broke above it – so Thursday and Friday’s tests were key as the dollar’s upside momentum starts to show signs of exhaustion.
The hold above means that the bullish bias is maintained but buyers should not feel too confident just yet.
The rebound in Friday’s trading saw price move back above the 100-hour MA (red line) but fail to take out the 95.00 handle. That’s not a good early sign that the bullish momentum has returned completely and shows that sellers are still poised to get back in the game.
Currently, price is testing a move below the 100-hour MA. Stay below and near-term bias favours sellers more. Support is seen around 94.75-80 before the 100-day MA @ 94.51 is tested again. Meanwhile, the key for buyers is to stay above the 100-hour MA but also secure a break above 95.00. That will be a good start for a return back to the upside in due time.
As for catalysts today, there is little to go on as markets continue to trade tepidly for the most part. It will all come down to risk sentiment and right now everyone is anticipating the potential escalation in the trade rhetoric between US and China. That will be the key focus of markets as the week begins.