The AUDUSD has been down 11-12 days in a row
The AUDUSD was last up significantly on the day back on July 18th. Since then, there have been 11 of 12 days down that have taken the price from 0.70813 to a low yesterday at 0.6747. Friday the price closed up 1 pip (the only gain – this is according to Bloomberg. My broker showed a small decline on the day).
Today, the pair moved higher in the Asian session. The RBA kept rates unchanged and said they would continue to cut rates if needed. They also softened their inflation expectations. So on balance it was a little more dovish. Nevertheless, the price of the AUDUSD did rally.
However, the price could not get to minimum topside levels that would tilt technical bias even a little to the upside. A topside trend line remains untested, as doesthe 100 hour MA (blue line at 0.6800 currently – the trend line is near the level too). If buyers are to show some strength and take some control (even it is the minimum), gettting above the trend line and the 100 hour moving average would be needed.
On the downside, the 0.6747 level was the low from yesterday’s trade. Today’s low came just above that level at 0.67493. The close yesterday was at 0.6756. That is where the current price is trading. A move below the 0.6747 level would open the downside toward a lower trend line currently at 0.6706 and moving lower.
Even if the price should close above yesterday’s closing level, I wouldn’t say that it is a monumental achievement for the buyers. Closing near the low and just above close from yesterday, after giving up somewhat decent gains is not what dip buyers want to see, or to build on. Having said that, if the 0.6747 level can hold, perhaps something can be build. However, from the pattern, expect the upside sledding to be tough……