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AUDUSD traders prepares for a weak CPI number (or so it seems)


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AUDUSD falls from 100 day MA and 50% retracement

The AUDUSD will be going into the CPI data in the new day with more of a bearish bias.  The price is back down trading near the lowest level since April 3rd.  Technically, it also moved below and away from the 100 day MA at 0.7132 and the 50% of the April trading range at 0.7128. Yesterday, that area stalled the fall (see top yellow area). Traders today broke below today and the price trended lower.  

On a more bearish report (hard to say if a “as is number” leads to more downside momentum), the April low at 0.70522 will be eyed. Below that the March low at 0.70027 (call it 0.7000) will have the traders attention.  
Back on January 3rd, there was the flash crash that sent the pair below 0.68000 (the low is debatable as it was so fast). Unfortunately, such a print ruins the true picture of the pair, but I am inclined to think the 0.6981 is the “true low” and would be another target (see hourly chart below).  

On a more bullish report, looking at the hourly chart, the topside trend line will come in about 0.7115 around the time of the release. A move above will go after the 50% and the 100 day MA at 0.7128-32.   The 100 hour MA at 0.71429. The 200 hour MA at 0.71529, and then the 200 day MA at 0.7186 are upside targets.  The price last week moved above the 200 day MA, but fell before the close. The pair has not closed above the 200 day MA since March 2018.  Remember that key fact….

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