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AUDUSD pauses its fall. Can it rally?


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Near unchanged on the day

The AUDUSD did continue it’s fall today reaching a low price of 0.6988. That was just shy of the January 2nd low at 0.6981. 

The AUDUSD on January 3, flash crashed lower but rebounded on the low liquidity move, based and moved higher from there.  I choose to treat that move on January 2nd as an aberration.  At the very least – if you don’t accept that – the January 2nd low is the 2nd lowest level for the AUDUSD for the year.  Today’s low is the 3rd lowest level. 
We are seeing a modest rebound today and the pair has made it’s way back toward unchanged levels at 0.7013.   Move and close with a positive gain would be a step in the positive direction for the pair technically.   
When the price is trying to build more of a countertrend trade, it is sometimes beneficial to take clues from the 5-minute chart. The reason is, you have to protect from the trend resuming, and after a trend move, the earliest clues are off the recent price action.  
Looking at the 5-minute chart below, there was a move above the 100 bar MA in the Asian session and the price tried to stay above that line (see chart below).  However, when the MA line was broken in the European session, the price moved to new lows.  

In the NY session, that 100 bar MA (follow the blue line) has been broken again.  This time to the upside, and since then, the price has been able to stay above that line (testing it at the recent lows and bouncing).  Buyers are trying. They have more work to do though.  
The easy rule now is if the price can stay above the 100 bar MA, the bulls are clinging to some control.  Conversely, if broken, don’t mess with the trend…. Get out (and even go short).  
What makes it difficult is the recent memory of the CPI data that was much weaker than expectations. Although there may be a rebound, the corrective move should have some trouble running higher. 
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