Trend line eyed below
The AUDUSD has nearly completed a full lap. The low in the Asia-Pacific session reached 0.7223. The rise – off that low – took the price toward the November 21 high at 0.72766 (the high today reach 0.72755). The failure to extend higher led to buyers turning back to sellers. The price low just reached 0.72246 – just above the earlier day low. Call the lap up and back down complete.
In the process, the pair has moved back below its 100 day moving average of 0.72458. That is now risk for shorts. Stay below is more bearish. Move above, and the sellers looking for more downside, should throw in the towel.
ON the downside, although the bias is more bearish below the 100 day MA, the price is approaching a lower trend line (see green numbered circles). That trend line cuts across at 0.7221. That trend line and the 38.2% retracement of the move up from the October 26 low at 0.72162 helps define a lower extreme. PS. On Friday the low price stalled right at that retracement level.
When the price moves up and down like it did today, buyers and sellers are battling it out. It also tempts traders to give a shot at playing the ranges and buy low, sell high.
The close range for the traders has 0.7216-21 on the downside. On the topside, the 0.72766 is resistance. In between sits the 100 day MA at 0.7245.
The sellers are more in control now below the 100 day MA but approaching the lower range area that should attract buyers, with stops below.