JPY pairs the biggest movers
The olive branch to delay tariffs by the US, has helped to send the JPY pairs higher and led to a flight into risk pairs like the AUD. The AUD is the runaway strongest currency today, while the JPY is the runawy weakest. That makes the AUDJPY the biggest mover for the day. The charts below show that the pair has moved 1.87% (in the snapshot), outdistancing the CADJPY (1.32%) and NZDJPY (1.28%).
Technicallly, the pair was sitting on the edge of a further move lower over the last two weeks as the pair tested the flash crash low (using Bloombergs low) at 70.642. The low last week stalled at 70.735. The low yesterday stalled at 70.89. Close enough for that pair.
As a result, the shove higher today, was made easier by the low levels and the inability to move to new 2019 lows. That high moved up to the 38.2% of the move down from the last leg lower from the July high. That retracement came in at 72.853. The high today reached 72.92. So far a standard correction of a trend leg for the AUDJPY (see daily chart above).
Drilling to the hourly chart below, the move higher today raced above the 100 hour MA and the 200 hour MA currently at 71.694 and 71.962. The run above the 100/200 hour MAs are the first since July 23rd – the start of the trend move lower. Since bottoming on August 7, the pair has moved up and down. The first move higher reached 72.355. Today’s move has surpassed that high. We currently trade just above it at 72.46.
Traders who are hopeful for the bottom in place should look for the 200 hour MA to now be the risk (at 71.96). The price should not go below that level. On the topside, utlimately, the 38.2% still needs to be broken. Otherwide the correction higher is a step in the bullish direction, but it is still just a “plain vanilla”correction.
Drilling to the 5 minute chart, there is a battle of the 38.2% retracements. Looking at it, the correction lower off the higher stalled at the 38.2% of the trend move higher.
So on the hourly chart the 38.2% stalled the rally, and on the 5-minute its 38.2% retracement stalled corrective move lower.
The battle of the 38.2% retracements is on.