AUD/USD has fallen for nine consecutive days with the Fed chipping in yesterday to keep the run going
The pair is holding more steady today though after touching a low of 0.6828 earlier before rebounding to hold just above 0.6850 during European trading so far. Of note, buyers are leaning on support from the June low @ 0.6832 in an effort to end the losing streak.
That is the next key line in the sand for the pair before price revisits the 0.6800 handle and potentially the January flash crash low of 0.6741.
Looking ahead, there are some key risk events to look out for as we wrap up the week. On the dollar side of the equation, there is the US manufacturing PMI data later today and then non-farm payrolls data tomorrow. Meanwhile, the aussie side of the equation sees retail sales data tomorrow before we head to the RBA meeting next Tuesday.
Those will ultimately feed into bias for buyers and sellers over the coming sessions but looking at the bigger picture for August:
Seasonal patterns suggest that August is among the worst months for the aussie in terms of performance against the dollar (only behind May). Of note, AUD/USD has fallen in 12 out of the last 15 Augusts with a drop in each of the last four years.
As for what to look out for in the month ahead this year, I reckon the spot to watch is central bank talk. As such, the RBA next week and Fedspeak during the month will be key.
I reckon the RBA will stick with their recent rhetoric but keep the tone to eye rate cuts in Q4 so that should limit the scope for any aussie gains.
As for the Fed, it’ll depend on whether or not Fed members see any need for more rate cuts as early as September. If they do not, the ~62% odds priced in now will get scaled back and that will provide a key tailwind for AUD/USD to drop again this August.