AUD/USD fails to hold a break above the key hourly moving averages
And that indicates that near-term bias in the pair remains more bearish. Right now, buyers ear leaning on support from the 0.7200 handle with further support seen around 0.7195 but the signs over the past few days haven’t been suggestive of a rebound back to the upside.
On Monday, price failed at a test to move back above the 200-hour MA (blue line) and since then buyers have been unable to pose a real threat to any upside breaks in the pair. As we move back below 0.7200, a break of this week’s low @ 0.7164 will open start to the give the downside momentum some real legs.
The key support level that can help stop a downside move will be the resistance-turned-support trendline (yellow line) and that sits around 0.7115 today. If price starts to move back below that, expect a retest of the 0.7000 handle to come soon after.
The good news for the aussie though is that the yields divergence among Australian bonds and Treasuries have narrowed recently and the correlation gap has appeared to have closed – for the most part at least:
That will at least help to provide less conviction for a further downside move but with the Fed set to hike rates further as we move into next year, expect monetary policy divergence to continue to be a key driver in pushing AUD/USD lower in the medium-term; until the RBA starts to hint at a change in policy that is.