The aussie is looking to firmly end its losing streak against the dollar over the past two weeks or so
The pair came close to testing the January flash crash low this week with price hitting 0.6748, just shy of the low at 0.6742. That said, the daily closes we’re experiencing are the lowest since the financial crisis back in 2009.
However, buyers can take some comfort from the fact that price is rebounding a little towards 0.6800 currently today. That should put an end to the poor run of form in the pair over the past two weeks or so.
I mean price did close by one pip higher last Friday but I wouldn’t count that as a real win considering the circumstances.
The near-term picture shows why the rebound today has been hardly convincing:
Price is still unable to find a way back above 0.6800 and the 100-hour MA (red line) @ 0.6811 is still not breached. That means sellers are still in near-term control of the pair.
The turnaround in risk today will ultimately prove to be short-lived if US-China trade tensions continue to escalate and as the RBA looks towards more rate cuts before the year-end, it’s hard to see Australian yields sustain at current levels for much longer.
Of note, 10-year yields survived a brief drop below the RBA cash rate of 1.00% earlier today but there will be more troubling days ahead. The dark clouds from US-China trade tensions continue to preside over markets and pair that alongside lower rates will continue to see yields suffer in the bigger picture.
With AUD/USD being largely a yields story over the past two years, that doesn’t bode well for the pair to maintain any solid upside momentum.